Free Dataset · Updated 2026

    The Freeze–Thaw Index for Northern Pavement

    Annual snowfall does not destroy asphalt — crossing 32°F over and over does. This index models how many freeze–thaw cycles hit 25 markets across Montana, Idaho, Washington, North Dakota and South Dakota each year, and what that means for your sealcoat window and service interval. Free to use and cite.

    The Data

    Freeze–Thaw Cycles by Market

    Sort by cycle load or elevation. Severe markets (100+ cycles) degrade roughly twice as fast as moderate ones under identical traffic.

    Sealcoat windowFirst hard freezeRecommended intervalTier
    West Yellowstone, MT1356,667 ftJun 15 – Aug 31Sep 5 – Sep 20Every 2 yearsSevere
    Butte, MT1255,538 ftJun 1 – Sep 10Sep 15 – Sep 30Every 2 yearsSevere
    Bozeman, MT1154,820 ftMay 20 – Sep 20Sep 25 – Oct 10Every 2 yearsSevere
    Helena, MT1103,875 ftMay 15 – Sep 25Sep 30 – Oct 12Every 2 yearsSevere
    Great Falls, MT1103,330 ftMay 15 – Sep 25Sep 28 – Oct 10Every 2 yearsSevere
    Whitefish, MT1053,033 ftMay 25 – Sep 15Sep 25 – Oct 8Every 2 yearsSevere
    Rapid City, SD1053,202 ftMay 10 – Oct 1Oct 1 – Oct 15Every 2 yearsSevere
    Columbia Falls, MT1003,081 ftMay 25 – Sep 15Sep 25 – Oct 8Every 2 yearsSevere
    Kalispell, MT1002,956 ftMay 20 – Sep 20Sep 28 – Oct 12Every 2 yearsSevere
    Hamilton, MT1003,572 ftMay 15 – Sep 25Sep 25 – Oct 10Every 2 yearsSevere
    Bismarck, ND951,686 ftMay 10 – Sep 25Sep 30 – Oct 12Every 2–3 yearsHigh
    Billings, MT953,123 ftMay 5 – Oct 5Oct 5 – Oct 18Every 2–3 yearsHigh
    Bigfork, MT952,903 ftMay 25 – Sep 15Sep 30 – Oct 12Every 2–3 yearsHigh
    Polson, MT902,933 ftMay 20 – Sep 20Oct 1 – Oct 15Every 2–3 yearsHigh
    Somers, MT902,926 ftMay 25 – Sep 15Sep 30 – Oct 12Every 2–3 yearsHigh
    Lakeside, MT902,946 ftMay 25 – Sep 15Sep 30 – Oct 12Every 2–3 yearsHigh
    Missoula, MT903,209 ftMay 10 – Sep 30Oct 5 – Oct 18Every 2–3 yearsHigh
    Fargo, ND90902 ftMay 10 – Sep 30Oct 1 – Oct 12Every 2–3 yearsHigh
    Sandpoint, ID852,100 ftMay 20 – Sep 20Oct 5 – Oct 20Every 2–3 yearsHigh
    Sioux Falls, SD851,450 ftMay 5 – Oct 1Oct 5 – Oct 18Every 2–3 yearsHigh
    Coeur d'Alene, ID752,188 ftMay 15 – Sep 30Oct 10 – Oct 25Every 3 yearsModerate
    Post Falls, ID752,172 ftMay 15 – Sep 30Oct 10 – Oct 25Every 3 yearsModerate
    Hayden, ID752,251 ftMay 15 – Sep 30Oct 8 – Oct 22Every 3 yearsModerate
    Boise, ID702,704 ftApr 25 – Oct 10Oct 20 – Nov 5Every 3 yearsModerate
    Spokane, WA701,843 ftMay 10 – Oct 5Oct 10 – Oct 25Every 3 yearsModerate

    Methodology

    • Cycle definition. A freeze–thaw cycle is a 24-hour period where the daily minimum falls below 32°F and the daily maximum rises above it. Counts are modeled from NOAA 1991–2020 daily climate normals at the nearest first-order station to each market.
    • Rounding. Values are rounded to the nearest 5 cycles. Treat them as planning estimates for maintenance budgeting, not as measured station output for any single year.
    • Sealcoat windows. Based on the application rule our crews run: surface temperature 50°F and rising, no precipitation forecast for 24 hours, and 8+ hours of daylight cure before overnight lows fall back under 50°F.
    • Tiers. Severe = 100+ cycles · High = 80–99 · Moderate = 60–79. Deferring crack sealing effectively moves a market up one tier, because open cracks let water reach the base course where each cycle does the most damage.

    Cite this dataset

    The Freeze–Thaw Index is free to quote, reproduce, and build on for editorial, academic, municipal, and property-management use — with attribution and a link back.

    Summit Surface Partners. “The Freeze–Thaw Index for Northern Pavement.” 2026. https://www.summit-surface.com/resources/freeze-thaw-index

    Writing about pavement, winter operations, or municipal infrastructure in our territory and want the underlying breakdown by market? Contact our team and we will send it over.

    Put It To Work

    What the Cycle Count Should Change

    Three decisions the index answers for a property manager or public works director.

    Sealcoat interval

    Severe-tier lots need sealcoat every 2 years. Stretching to 4 in a 110-cycle market is how a lot ends up needing an overlay a decade early.

    See sealcoating program

    Crack sealing priority

    Every open crack multiplies the damage each cycle does. In severe markets, hot-pour crack sealing is the highest-return line item on the budget.

    See crack sealing

    Winter treatment plan

    High cycle counts mean repeated melt-refreeze on the surface. Anti-icing with brine before the event beats reactive salting after it.

    See snow & ice management
    FAQ

    Freeze–Thaw Questions

    Want your own lot scored against its market's cycle load?

    Request a pavement assessment